It’s table-watching time.
Here’s where Vancouver Whitecaps FC stand after Week 23 of the MLS season.
As you can see, the ‘Caps sit eighth in the Western Conference after falling 2-1 to San Jose Earthquakes on Friday night at BC Place. It was a big blow for the Blue and White, but if there’s any consolation, some of the other results went their way.
Notably, Portland Timbers suffered a 2-0 defeat at the hands of DC United and Sporting Kansas City drew 2-2 with FC Dallas. The ‘Caps now trail KC by five points heading into Saturday’s tilt at Children’s Mercy Park (7 p.m. PT on TSN1 and TSN 1040). They also have a game in hand.
It goes without saying how crucial this game is for Vancouver’s playoff hopes.
Especially when you consider that Seattle Sounders FC appear to have found their form with back-to-back victories – most recently, a 2-1 win over RSL this weekend.
So all things considered, what exactly will it take for Vancouver to get into the postseason?
“It’s probably going to take 45 to 48 points, I believe,” Whitecaps FC head coach Carl Robinson told reporters following Friday’s match. “We lost three points today at home to a rival. Everyone’s playing everyone. We can concentrate on ourselves, we have to. If we start scoreboard-watching and rely on that, it can bite us on the bum. We won’t do that. We need five or six wins out of nine games. We don’t get them, we probably don’t get to the playoffs.”
Robinson might be onto something.
According to Sports Club Stats’ weighted method, which predicts the scores of the remaining games taking into account home field advantage and team records, a 45-point season would still give Vancouver more than a 50 per cent chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
Forty-eight points, meanwhile, gives them more than a 95 per cent chance.
As Robinson said on Friday, however, it starts with one win. And they’re hoping it will come this weekend in Kansas City.
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