Vancouver Whitecaps FC have six matches left in the MLS regular season to clinch a spot in the playoffs. After displaying a strong performance against Seattle last Saturday, despite the loss, the players and coach Carl Robinson remain confident in the team’s chances.
“If we can take care of our business, we are competitive and play like we did on Saturday, with a little bit of luck, we will be fine,” Robinson told reporters.
Here’s the breakdown of Vancouver’s remaining encounters:
FC Dallas (home) – September 23
LA Galaxy (away) – September 29
Toronto FC (away) – October 6
Sporting Kansas City (home) – October 17
LAFC (away) – October 21
Portland Timbers (home) – October 28
As it stands, the ‘Caps sit seventh in the Western Conference with 40 points, trailing Seattle by four points for the final playoff spot. Other teams they’re chasing include Real Salt Lake (45 points) and Portland Timbers (47 points), who the ‘Caps will host in their regular season finale.
So what do the ‘Caps need from these final six matches to get over the line?
First, let’s take a little history lesson.
Ever since 2011, when the MLS teams started playing 34 games in the regular season and when Whitecaps FC joined the league, only one time has a club needed more than 52 points to advance. That was the 2012 Houston Dynamo.
And according to Sports Club Stats, 52 points – or four wins – would give Vancouver an 89.4% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. So that might be what the ‘Caps are looking at.
Should the ‘Caps finish on 51 points, their chances drop to 68.1%. And the percentage drops to 49.5% with 50 points – which would require three wins and a draw.
Still, there are several other scenarios that could play out.
Currently, the distance between first-place Sporting Kansas City and sixth-place Seattle Sounders FC is only seven points. By contrast, there are 21 points separating the first and sixth-place teams in the Eastern Conference.
Such a tight fight, however, could be beneficial to Robinson’s side. Four of Vancouver’s final six matches are against teams they’re chasing in the West – FC Dallas, Sporting Kansas City, LAFC, and Portland Timbers – which means almost only six-pointers from now on.
The race to the playoffs is far from over.
Whitecaps FC host FC Dallas on Sunday at BC Place (4 p.m. PT kickoff on TSN1 and TSN 1040 – tickets are still available).
